The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you’re going to end up with some losing stocks. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Geojit Financial Services Limited (NSE:GEOJITFSL) shareholders. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 72% drop in the share price over that period.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Geojit Financial Services actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.6% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It’s pretty reasonable to suspect the market was previously to bullish on the stock, and has since moderated expectations. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn’t explain the share price drop. However, the weak share price might be related to the fact revenue has been disappearing at a rate of 3.5% each year, over three years. In that case, the current EPS might be viewed by some as difficult to sustain.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Geojit Financial Services, it has a TSR of -68% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We’re pleased to report that Geojit Financial Services shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 44% over one year. That’s including the dividend. That’s better than the annualised return of 1.7% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Geojit Financial Services better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Geojit Financial Services you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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