Where is the market headed in the first week of Samvat 2077? Hopes of a Covid vaccine, which pushed US stocks to a record closing high on Friday, would be the biggest trigger for Dalal Street this week. Next on the list will be foreign inflows, which have been supporting the market strongly of late. WPI inflation data for October, Gland Pharma‘s market debut, a couple of Chinese economic data including their industrial production numbers and a track of rising Covid cases globally would also be noteworthy in the truncated week.

Market to remain shut on Monday
This week will be a truncated one as the domestic stock market will be shut on Monday on account of Diwali Balipratipada. In case of commodity markets, trade will resume on Monday in the 5 pm-11.30 pm evening session, after remaining shut in the morning session.

Vaccine optimism
US President Donald Trump said on Friday he expects a coronavirus vaccine to be available for the entire population as soon as April, amid a crush of new infections of the deadly disease that has pushed daily case counts to record highs. In another development, the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine maker, said it aims to have 100 million doses ready by December for an inoculation drive that could begin across India next month. Optimism over Covid vaccine pushed US stocks to a record high on Friday.

WPI inflation data for October
Wholesale Price Index or WPI inflation is likely to rise to 1.74 per cent in October from 1.32 per cent in the previous month, mainly on account of higher food prices, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said in a note. The data will be out on Monday. “Food articles inflation is likely to rise to 10.26 per cent in October from 8.17 per cent in the previous month. Global commodity prices were mixed with crude oil witnessing a decline and metals rising. We expect core WPI inflation to inch up to 0.89 per cent from 0.68 per cent, led by higher metal prices and a low base,” the brokerage said.

Gland Pharma IPO listing
Gland Pharma IPO will likely list this week, probably on November 20. The initial public offer (IPO), the biggest ever offering in the Indian pharmaceutical sector, was subscribed 2.06 times on the final day of subscription earlier this week. The IPO fetched Rs 6,480 crore at the upper end of the price band Rs 1,490-1,500 per share.

Clarity over US election
United States President Donald Trump has hinted that he may accept defeat by Joe Biden as the media declared the Democrat the winner in Georgia while the counting was still going on, solidifying his lead in the electoral college, IANS reported. “Whatever happens in the future, who knows, which administration will be, I guess time will tell,” Trump said. Stock markets the world over are seeking a swift transition, which may eventually pave way for the much-awaited stimulus.

Global economic indicators
Japan will release its GDP data on Monday. China will release its October industrial production, housing prices and retail sales data the same day. US industrial production numbers will be out on Tuesday. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is to give a speech on the same day. On Thursday, Japan’s export-import data, German car registration numbers, CPI data for the euro zone will be disclosed.

FPI flows trend
The Rs 29,436 crore FPI inflows so far in November has been the highest monthly flows since August and second-highest overall for 2020. The dollar index, which has an inverse relation with emerging market assets, has been on a fall. It is fuelling dollar inflows into markets like India.

Eyes on rising Covid numbers
While optimism over Covid vaccine stays, concern remains over rising Covid cases globally. Investors would eye such developments. So far, India’s overall tally stood at 87,73,479 on Saturday, as the toll touched 1,29,188, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said. This included 44,684 new coronavirus infections and 520 deaths in the past 24 hours. Currently, there are 4,80,719 active cases, whereas 81,63,572 patients have been cured and discharged so far. The recovery rate stands at 92.97 per cent, and the fatality rate is 1.47 per cent, the ministry said.

Technical charts
Aditya Agarwala of YES Securities said that the index has entered a sideways phase. “Nifty is approaching an upper end of a major rising channel placed at 12,850-12,900. A failure to take out this resistance can trigger profit booking in the coming trading weeks,” he said.

Nirali Shah, senior research analyst, Samco Securities, said the index has become overbought and a profit-booking move cannot be ruled out. He advised traders to keep a buy on dips approach unless the Nifty50 does not break below the rising channel on the weekly chart. The immediate support and resistance levels, he said, are placed at 12,400 and 12,800, respectively.





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