• The automobile sales in October 2020 are likely to be more strong led by festive demand and normalisation of the supply chain.
  • In the commercial vehicle (CV) space, the LCV/ICV segment is seeing decent recovery driven by demand for last-mile connectivity. But, M&HCV sales continue to be under pressure.
  • Here’s what to expect from Maruti, M&M, Hero, Bajaj Auto and other automakers in October auto sales.

The Indian automobile sector saw a gradual recovery in the quarter ended in September. And the recovery is likely to gain ground in October 2020 are likely to be stronger in anticipation of the festive demand and normalisation of the supply chain, strong sentiments from rural and semi-urban markets and rise in preference for personal mobility.

According to the Nirmal Bang report, original equipment manufacturer commentaries suggest that festivals have started on a good note, and the urban markets are catching up with the recovery. However, analysts noted that the demand continues to be inclined towards the lower end of the segments.

A DART report suggests that commercial vehicle sales that have been subdued due to COVID witnessed a gradual recovery during the early part of the festive season. “Four-wheeler retail sales picked up 20% YoY in the Navratri period on the back of higher preference for personal safety, better financing availability, and improving trend in urban sales. Inventory has come down to 20-25 days’ post-Navratri period, and we visualize stronger momentum in dispatch for Oct & Nov’20.”

Meanwhile, in the CV space, the LCV/ICV segment has seen a decent recovery driven by demand for last-mile connectivity. But, M&HCV sales continue to be under pressure, led by low fleet utilization and poor financial condition of fleet operators.

The DART report also highlighted that going forward dealers are optimistic of good sales during November on the back of improving inquiries, higher demand from the up-country market and lower interest cost along with lucrative financing offers.

Here’s what to expect from Maruti, M&M, Hero, Bajaj Auto and other automakers in October auto sales.

Maruti October auto sales expectations:

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Maruti Suzuki India October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
Domestic sales 163,650 144,277 13.4%
Exports 9,000 9,158 -1.7%
Total sales 172,650 153,435 12.5%

Source: Nirmal Bang

M&M October auto sales expectations:

Mahindra & Mahindra October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
Automotive 47,407 51,896 -8.7%
Farm Equipment 47,705 45,433 5%
Total Sales 95,112 97,329 -2.3%

Source: Nirmal Bang

Bajaj Auto October auto sales expectations:

Bajaj Auto October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
Three-wheeler 45,839 64,295 -29%
Motorcycle 447,554 398,913 12.20%
Total 493,393 463,208 6.50%

Source: Nirmal Bang

Ashok Leyland September auto sales expectations:

Ashok Leyland October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
MHCV 4,262 5,126 -16.8%
LCV 5,441 4,731 15%
Total sales 9,703 9,857 -1.6%

Source: Nirmal Bang

Eicher Motors September auto sales expectations:

Eicher Motors October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
VECV 3,930 3,761 4.50%
Royal Enfield (RE) 70,000 71,964 -2.70%

Source: Nirmal Bang

TVS October auto sales expectations:

TVS Motor October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
Three-wheeler 15,967 15,207 5%
Two-wheeler 326,455 308,161 6%
Total 342,422 323,368 6%

Source: Nirmal Bang

Hero MotoCorp October auto sales expectations:

Hero MotoCorp October 2020 (expectations) October 2019 YoY (%)
Motorcycle 719,098 599,248 20.00%

Source: Nirmal Bang

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